Morgan Stanley Forecasts Australian Ad Spend To Fall By 9% In 5 Years
In a recent analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley on Australian advertising, it forecasted that the domestic media share will shrink if it doesn’t innovate quickly. The domestic media ad spend was $10.4 billion in 2019 and will fall at an annual rate of 9% over the next five years. In a note to clients, analysts wrote,
“We think investors perpetually underestimate the global leakage of ad spend from Australia.”
A section of marketers holds a viewpoint that the ad spend with Google and Facebook has started to plateau and revenue is returning to the domestic traditional media. However, the analysts completely disagree with this market viewpoint and highlighted numbers that suggest that there can be an acceleration post-COVID 19.
The Australian advertising market has shown little growth over the years – around 1.9 % a year. Also, the financial statements filed with corporate regulator ASIC reveals that over the last three years, global media/tech players’ revenues in Australia increased by roughly 20%.
The global ad tech players like Google, Facebook, Snap, and Twitter as well as emerging players like TikTok continue to take an increase in share in the Australian consumer’s time especially the younger demographics. They will have a larger share in digital media spend in Australia post-pandemic as well.
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Morgan Stanley forecasts 2.1 % revenue to fall of global tech players in Australia in the current downturn but not as severe as that of domestic media- radio, outdoor, print, and TV. On the other side, the revenue of the domestic media players will see a drop of steep 22.1%
However, the analysts believe that global players will lift their market share in advertising in Australia. For instance, Google Australia’s gross revenue was $4.8 billion in 2019. Morgan Stanley estimates a 4% decline this year owing to the ad industry slow down but expects to rise 13% year-on-year growth up to 4 years to reach between $7 billion and $8 billion in ad revenue a year in 2024.
Analysts say,
“Eventually, COVID-19 will be over and there will be a cyclical recovery in the Australian economy, and a bounce-back in the advertising cycle. ”
He further added that the market will be disappointed in expecting a rise in domestic media earnings.
“Even post COVID-19, when the overall advertising market stabilizes and starts to improve, we think the magnitude of the recovery will disappoint investors.”
“Our point of difference is our thesis … that if the global tech players continue to grow revenue double digits in Australia, but the total pool of ad revenues is only increasing 2% to 3% p.a., there is necessarily a ‘crowding out’ of ad spend left for domestic media companies to pursue.”
The markets underestimate the risks to ad revenue, profit margins, and ROCE(Return on equity) from a 5-year long term view. The main reason for the global tech giants growing faster than local media is structural changes. ‘Necessity is the mother of invention’ and businesses that continue with traditional media platforms for advertising need to change and rethink their strategy.
The analysts in the report mentioned that
“The consistent industry feedback we receive is the current challenges facing large, small and medium-sized businesses across Australia is prompting leadership and management teams to think harder and deeper about becoming more digital,”
Many SMEs have tried marketing on digital platforms for the first time during COVID 19 as consumer behavior and time spent has changed and accelerated towards digital/online/mobile media. It is expected that the same pivot will exist with the advertising budgets.
Unfortunately, the crowding of traditional media- radio, outdoor, TV, print – is set to be more intense.
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Morgan Stanley continues to have an underweight rating for ASX media companies like Seven West Media, WPP AUNZ, oOh! media and Southern Cross but Nine Entertainment.
Nine Entertainment (NEC)is an exception due to its various revenue sources like digital subscription, streaming, and digital advertising assets. Analysts believe that some Australian media companies have the potential to reinvent themselves and develop digital businesses and NEC has demonstrated the ability for such a reinvention.
The global players may face a threat if they fail to innovate themselves and will lose their consumer share and ad share.
Advertisers Look For Greater Transparency In Programmatic Ad Buying
Time and again, “Transparency’ has been a cause of concern for advertisers in the programmatic ad buying. This has been a long time pending issue which still remains unresolved as advertisers try to uncover what happens to money spent on programmatic ads.
Ad spend is falling and advertisers are again seeking greater transparency into the ad-buying supply chain. Hidden fees, fraud, viewability, and brand safety are the growing concerns that need immediate attention.
Trade body ISBA studies reveal that nearly half (49%) of ad buys disappear before reaching publishers and 34% of this money is the disclosed fees agencies and ad tech vendors take for trading impressions. However, 15% cannot be attributed to what the report called an ‘unknown delta’ on the supply chain. The amount of money that reaches publishers is lower, as the report did not consider ad fraud and ad viewability.
As reported earlier, a noticeable amount of programmatic dollars doesn’t reach the publishers and it is getting increasingly harder to keep a track of where it goes. The trade body struggled for nine months to gather data from the ad tech vendors to make a report on this and when it received data is was unusable.
PwC collected information for the study was data on 267 million impressions traded between 15 advertisers, eight agencies, five demand-side platforms, six supply-side platforms, and 12 publishers from the Association of Online Publishers from Jan. 1 to 20. March. Of those impressions, only 31 million (12%) were actually analyzed by matching log-level and aggregated data across 290 different supply chains.
PwC reported that it was highly cumbersome and hard to collect data on each impression. Ad tech vendors were conservative in sharing data due non-disclosure agreements and data collected was in different formats making it difficult to trace an advertiser’s money to so many different publishers. The advertisers involved in the study were non-premium 40,525 sites on an average.
Generally, an advertiser or agency decides to buy impressions and pay for them on DSP while publishers use SSP to sell their inventory at advertisers. Data on impressions from these two platforms are matched up and PwC did the same. However, data could not give financial transparency for the advertisers and publishers There were still costs in the ‘unknown delta’ that remains unidentified on the report. For instance, hidden fees can be a combination of additional ad tech vendor fees, post-auction bid shading, trading deals, and other unknown factors.
As quoted Sam Tomlinson, marketing assurance partner at PwC in DigiDay,
“This is more because the programmatic ecosystem is built on legacy processes that are a mess.”
Graeme Adams, head of media at BT Group said,
“We desperately need to see a common set of standards adopted and more openness in this market, so that every penny spent is accounted for. If this happens, we’ll invest more in the channel; if not, we will cut back and reshape our trading approaches.”
To conduct such high and intense study is a big expense. For instance, It costs more than £1 million ($1.2 million) to collect and process the data from different sources in ISBA’s study. A lot of emphasis is given to attain log file data by marketers. If the ISBA report proves anything that the log file data can reveal everything about transparency and nothing at the same time.
Ruben Schreurs, managing partner at digital media consulting firm Digital Decisions responds to log file data and said,
“Using the overly sophisticated approach of trying to match log-file data in real-time is like buying the IBM Watson supercomputer to calculate 1+1.”
He added that advertisers should have a sensible and valuable approach by running a periodic review of their net spend on publishers and match it with publisher data cumulatively. This will help to get the right and required output to make value-driven decisions on how to optimize the value chain and avoid complicating technologies.
Nevertheless, the report findings can help the adtech industry and give the insight to enhance financial and data transparency as regulators on impressions as regulators dominate.
Steve Chester, director of media and advertising at ISBA said,
“If the ad industry can be seen to be demonstrating that we can create a more open and transparent market then it could avoid the necessity of being regulated.”
Tik Tok Tests ‘Shop Now’ Button For Influencer Videos
TikTok, mostly considered as an entertainment platform is improving its advertising offerings and nascent Creator Marketplace that matches advertisers with vetted publishers and influencers. DigiDay reported that TikTok is testing a new ad format namely the ‘Shop Now’ button. This would link brands to the leading influencers allowing the creators to display the Call-To-Action button in their videos. The ad revenue will be divided between TikTok and influencers.
The revenue split ratio is not decided yet but DigiDay reported that the company is discussing 20/80 splits in Tik Tok’s favor. This model allows TikTok to tap into revenue that was previously shared between advertisers and influencers.
Can you shop on TikTok?
The Shop Now option influences the user to shop the product right away is one way of having both – performance and direct response ad products. The creator CTA feature is still in the early testing stage and is available to only select advertisers and agencies.
As quoted by DigiDay, a TikTok spokeswoman,
“We are constantly experimenting with ideas and features to improve the app experience for our users. TikTok is a platform for creative expression and a big part of that is showing and sharing the things you love with others. We’re in the early stages of testing a way users can add links to products to their videos and will share more updates when we have them.”
Earlier this month we witnessed Levi’s was among the first brands to partner with Tik Tok’s influencers and trial the Shop Now’ program. It partnered with the influencers to promote its “Future Finish” customizable denim technology on the platform.
Levi’s reported the product views doubled on the ‘Future Finish’ page that featured in the campaign. All advertisers can access to ‘Shop Now’ button to help drive traffic to their websites but is different from the CTA Beta test said TikTok spokesperson to DigiDay.
Is TikTok following the YouTube way?
TikTok has increased its focus on Creators and for this, it had launched Creators Marketplace late last year. The Creators marketplace helps advertisers to filter out the platform’s top creators.
It appears that TikTok is moving towards YouTube Creator shared revenue model than the Instagram model. Amy Luca, chief executive at influencer marketing company TheAmplify said,
One of the things that Instagram struggles with is retrofitting some of their programs to pull out money from the gray market ecosystem that is being earned by influencers and paid by brands on their platform.”
Growing users of the social video app
TikTok has been growing rapidly over the past year and has been on a tear since the lockdown. Data company Apptopia estimates TikTok was the second top free app on iOs and Google Play stores in the U.S. on April 28. It is also estimated to have 328 monthly active users and was downloaded 100 million times worldwide between Mar 20 through April 28.
Jude Rajanathan, a global director at media agency Zenith stated that TikTok will work on improving its CTA buttons to push for more performances and direct-response ads.
Snap’s Q1 2020 Report: Users and Revenue Increases, Ad Spend Declines
Snap Inc. the parent company of the popular social media platform Snapchat reported in its Q1 2020 earnings – strong gains in both users and revenues but a dip in advertiser spend despite the growing concerns about the coronavirus pandemic.
No Coronavirus Negative Impact on Earnings-Yet
The stock was up nearly 20 percent after the company reported a 44 percent (Y-o-Y) increase in its first-quarter revenue to $462 million. That was a far better performance than expected. The ad spend growth grew 58% in January and February, and fell to roughly 25% in March (when the pandemic grew rapidly), the gains from the first two months helping to end the quarter positively.
CFO Derek Andersen said during Snap’s earnings call,
“The economic environment has become challenging for many of our advertising partners.”
The company didn’t provide guidance for Q2 citing uncertainty related to the worldwide economic crisis but in an unusual step, provided revenue growth figures for the first week of April. The advertiser mix on Snapchat contributed to the Q1 performance and continues to help in Q2. Snapchat has a few small business advertisers unlike Facebook and Instagram, however many large advertisers are ready to commit on a regular basis.
Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel said in a statement,
“We are grateful for the opportunity to serve our community and partners during this difficult time.” He added, “Snapchat is helping people stay close to their friends and family while they are separated physically, and I am proud of our team for overcoming the many challenges of working from home during this time while we continue to grow our business and support those who are impacted by COVID-19.”
Strong User Growth and increase in Engagement
Snapchat’s daily active user (DAV) base reached 229 million in the first quarter across all regions and on Android and iOS.This represents a 20 percent increase from last year.
Image Credit: Snapchat Earnings Slides
There is some concern over the divergence of Snapchat’s users’ growth. Snapchat added 2 million more users in North America- the most lucrative market but the majority of the growth was from the ‘Rest of the World’ category. Snapchat has witnessed significant growth in the Indian market since it revamped its Android app, a key contributor to the ‘Rest of the World’ category.
However, the key area of opportunity that Snap would prefer to boost growth in the US as it will get more 3.5x more revenue per user.
Image Credit: Snapchat Sides
Besides, the time spent on Snapchat has increased due to coronavirus. CEO Evan Spiegel reported that the average time spent in the last week of March vs. the last week of January was up more than 20%. On the other hand, markets like the U.K, France saw more than a 30% increase.
Mobile app tracker App Annie’s findings point out 54% growth in average time spent per user on Snapchat in South Korea from March1-14,2020, compared with Q4 2019. Italy marked a 36% increase and Japan was up 23%.
Image Credit: eMarketer
Additionally, this pandemic increased communication with friends and family on Snapchat, up more than 30% in the last week of march compared to the last week of January whereas in some other geographies there was an increase of more than 50%.
Games, TV, Chat, Calling are other highlighting points of group engagement.
Snapchatters watching Snap’s premium content hub ‘ Discover’ grew 35% Y-o-Y in Q1 2020 which represents the total time spent watching shows more than doubling this quarter. The company also mentioned hiring Hulu senior vice president of advertising sales Peter Naylor.
Chief business officer Jeremi Gorman said,
“As TV budgets migrate to digital, they move to places that carry the same advantages of linear, and we’ve been investing in those things for years. Peter is just the most recent investment in the strategy.”
Snap has also launched App Stories -brings its popular stories feature to the app. It also launched five new Snap games globally. With the use of videoconferencing and live streaming to connect with friends and family, Snap has seen more than 30 times increase in the daily download of Snap camera, a desktop app that allows people to add lenses to whichever video service they use. Besides, it added more than 120 partner app integration with its Snap Kit, and the numbers of Snapchatters using on a monthly basis is up 75% from the Q4 of 2019.
Direct-Response advertising budgets make up half of the revenues.
Snap continues to double down on direct response advertisers especially in games, home entertainment, CPG, and eCommerce. Direct response advertising now accounts for more than half of Snap’s revenue.
Speigel noted,
“In the short-term, we’re shifting sales resources and pulling forward some investments in direct response to better serve the advertisers who are trying to reach our audience during this time. For example, we can help movie studios pivot to digital releases by supporting them with a suite of products designed to track titles over a dynamic and flexible release window. We’ve also seen many large brands doing a lot of important things to help their community and the broader world, and we’re helping these brands communicate their efforts to our audience in a thoughtful and approachable way that inspires others to make a positive impact.”
Snapchat recently worked with Universal on the promotion of the animated film ‘Trolls World Tour’ released digitally incorporating Trolls AR masks into Snap Camera add-on a feature that gained significant momentum as more people work from home.
Snap has worked immensely hard over the past few years to build out measurement capabilities and ad products to interest the direct advertisers resulting in nearly double total ad revenues in two years.
So what has Snap done to get this?
Snap introduced conversion-optimized bidding- which allows advertisers to optimize toward their sales or app install gaols, conversion-tracking advertising pixels, and improved ad-targeting capabilities. This has attracted performance advertisers who already buy those types from other platforms.
Snap has focused on offering unique ad products like augmented reality platforms and easy self serve ad platform.
Chief business officer Jeremi Gorman said,
“Advertisers are looking for a way to make a dollar go further. “We have efficient pricing, and we’re a great place to come to get ROAS for the audience they’re looking for.”
There is also something for Snap’s brand advertisers. The company has doubled the amount of money committed via upfronts in 2020 vs. 2019. Snap is using its creative services to help brands distribute their PSAs related to COVID-19, like the filter from Adidas encouraging people across the United Kingdom and Germany to stay at home that was viewed more than 14 million times.
Snap has a lot of potential and capacity to reach a young audience. Although things look gloomy for the remaining year of 2020, Snap appears more stable and an attractive platform for advertisers and partners. If Snap manages to expand its market appeal geographically, it will be well-positioned beyond COVID-19.
IAB GCC Report: Ramadan Budgets Shift Towards Performance based Ad Spends
Advertisers are changing their digital ad spend due to the ongoing coronavirus crisis affecting the businesses and the economy. The Dubai based Interactive Agency Bureau(IAB) that empowers GCC based media and marketing industries surveyed the marketing teams of nearly 30 Agencies and Clients between April 6 to April 12, 2020, for the impact of COVID-19 on Advertising.
Here are some main points from the report:
The findings suggest a huge downturn with 48% of respondents expect less than 30% of budget cuts in April and 41% of respondents see a decline in ad-spending or paused post-June.
With the Holy month of Ramadan expected to begin within weeks, there are still 34% of respondents who are yet to take decisions on Ramadan budgets while 51% are unsure about the directions of second-half budgets in this unprecedented period. This suggests that the majority of marketers are in ‘wait-and-see’ mode.
The report also states that 59% of respondents are suggesting that they will significantly increase the ‘Performance-based’ ad spend. This indicates marketers are in favour of Performance media in the second half.
Even though advertisers might be working on leaner budgets but are opportunistic to see 17% growth in Digital display in the second half. They also expect a rise in the audience and programmatic buying.
Lastly, 77% of respondents see COVID-19 will have a significant impact on the MENA advertising market than the 08/09 financial crisis.
Take a look at the pictorial images of findings and methodology from the report.
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There is a wave of optimism about the second half right now and are looking ahead of a post-pandemic world whenever it is possible. Definitely, there is a pendulum swing in the minds of advertisers whether to decrease ad spend or pause it entirely to what we hope for a clear picture very soon.
